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Evidence digest · maintained document

LEADER — trial digest

Maintainers: unit_conversion, preregistered, h.nicolaides Last updated 9 July 2026 Next review due 27 March 2027 296 words · 6 revisions
Sourced from a discussion. This document was promoted out of How to read a forest plot, properly, from scratch (solved), in Trials. That topic links back here, and corrections raised there flow into this page.

LEADER (N Engl J Med 2016): Does liraglutide reduce major adverse cardiovascular events?

Citation and design

FieldValue
TrialLEADER
InterventionLiraglutide 1.8 mg daily
PublicationN Engl J Med, 2016 (first author Marso)
DesignDouble-blind, placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcome trial, median 3.8 years
PopulationAdults with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk

This digest summarises the trial and the criticisms our journal club considered material. It is not a substitute for the paper, and where the two differ the paper is right.

The question it set out to answer

Does liraglutide reduce major adverse cardiovascular events?

Stating the question before the result is a house convention. A great many arguments about this trial are actually arguments about what it was for.

What it found

The first clearly positive cardiovascular outcome trial for a GLP-1 receptor agonist and the historical anchor for the class.

Cardiovascular death was reduced, which is the component least susceptible to ascertainment bias.

Long follow-up relative to most trials discussed here.

Criticisms the journal club considered material

  1. A high-risk diabetes population; absolute benefit at lower risk would be smaller.
  2. Background therapy in 2016 differs from contemporary background therapy, which affects read-across.

These are criticisms of the design and of how the result is used, not of the investigators. Sessions that lose that distinction get moderated.

How it is misused

The two recurring misuses of this trial in general discussion are quoting the relative effect without the absolute one, and extending the result to a population the trial did not enrol. Both are easy to correct and both keep happening.

Where a number appears in secondary coverage without an estimand attached, assume it is whichever version is larger and check the paper.

Maintenance

Digests are reviewed when new analyses of the same trial are published, and at the review date shown above regardless. If a secondary publication changes the picture, raise it in journal club rather than editing the digest directly, so the change is discussed before it lands.

Revision history

2026-07-09aliquot_lineUpdated a dated claim and added the date explicitly, per the maintenance convention.
2026-05-09q.zhao_qaAdded the table of acceptance criteria requested in doc review.
2026-02-08mira.patelRemoved a paragraph that duplicated a linked page, and linked it instead.
2025-10-13outline_firstReverted an unsourced change and asked the editor to re-apply it with a citation.
2025-05-19dietitian_hollisCitation sweep: two references did not support the sentences attached to them and have been replaced.
2025-04-01NLoughranInitial promotion from the source topic. Structure taken from the marked solution.

Every edit to a maintained document records its author and a note explaining the change. An edit without a note may be reverted by any wiki editor under R9, and the revert is logged. Disagreements about content belong on the source topic rather than in the revision history (R10).

Related documents

  • STEP 1 — trial digestSTEP 1 (N Engl J Med 2021): Does semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly reduce body weight in adults with obesity and no diabetes?
  • STEP 2 — trial digestSTEP 2 (Lancet 2021): What weight reduction does semaglutide 2.4 mg achieve in people who also have type 2 diabetes?
  • STEP 3 — trial digestSTEP 3 (JAMA 2021): What does semaglutide add on top of intensive behavioural therapy?
  • STEP 4 — trial digestSTEP 4 (JAMA 2021): What happens if you stop after reaching the maintenance dose?
  • STEP 8 — trial digestSTEP 8 (JAMA 2022): How does weekly semaglutide compare directly with daily liraglutide?