Revisiting: Patterns that reliably precede a problem, documented

Posting this under the heading it deserves: Revisiting: Patterns that reliably precede a problem, documented Everything below is what sits behind that.

A logistics question, since the answers here are usually better than anywhere else I have looked.

Parcel despatched 14 days ago, tracking last updated 9 days ago at a customs facility, no further movement. Cold pack included at despatch.

Two questions. First, at what point is this genuinely a problem rather than an ordinary delay? Second, if it does arrive, what is the actual decision process for assessing it, as opposed to the two extremes people usually offer?

Worth separating two things that post #2 runs together.

Two things before anyone answers the substance.

First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.

Inability to trace lots: if you ask "where was this synthesised, by whom, under what conditions" and cannot get a clear answer, that is a red flag. Traceability is not glamorous but it is foundational.

Rapid supplier turnover: a supplier that changes corporate structure, domain name, or contact repeatedly in short time windows raises suspicion about stability and legitimacy.

Unresponsiveness: a supplier that does not reply to reasonable requests for documentation or clarification is showing you something about how they operate.