Revisiting: Why the absence of controlled human data on BPC-157 matters more than people admit

Revisiting: Why the absence of controlled human data on BPC-157 matters more than people admit Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did.

Comparing SURPASS-4 (Lancet, 2021) with STEP 1 (N Engl J Med, 2021) and finding the comparison harder than it looks.

Different populations, different durations, different endpoints defined slightly differently, and in one case a different estimand. People compare the headline percentages anyway, including me until recently.

Is there a defensible way to put these side by side, or is the honest answer that there is not and we should stop?

The distinction between "no evidence it works" and "evidence it does not work": we have the first for these compounds. That is genuinely different from the second and the distinction matters, but it also means treatment plans based on these compounds are being built on theoretical grounds, not empirical ones.

Stability of BPC-157 in solution: what has been measured in published work covers specific formulations under specific conditions. Extrapolating to a reconstituted preparation in a different diluent at a different concentration is an extrapolation, acknowledged as one.

Publication patterns in the BPC-157 literature: a large proportion of the evidence comes from one research group. That is not necessarily wrong — one group can do excellent work — but it is worth noting when evaluating the breadth of support for a claim.

Worth separating two things that post #34 runs together.

Reading a preclinical wound-healing model: the model shows whether a mechanism is plausible in a specific context. It does not show magnitude of effect in humans, does not show safety profile in humans, and does not show whether the effect survives in a more complex biological system. That is not a criticism of preclinical work — it is what preclinical work is for.

Oral versus injected administration claims for BPC-157: the preclinical work studied injection. Oral claims are common in supplier marketing and poorly supported by published evidence. If you are comparing orality between compounds, that is a distinction worth noting.

This follows post #47 rather than contradicting it.

What would change the position on repair peptides: adequately powered, published, peer-reviewed randomised controlled human trials with pre-specified outcomes. That is the standard applied to every other therapeutic claim on this site and it is the standard applied here.