SURMOUNT-4 and what withdrawal data does and does not tell an individual

SURMOUNT-4 and what withdrawal data does and does not tell an individual — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable.

Comparing SURMOUNT-2 (Lancet, 2023) with STEP 8 (JAMA, 2022) and finding the comparison harder than it looks.

Different populations, different durations, different endpoints defined slightly differently, and in one case a different estimand. People compare the headline percentages anyway, including me until recently.

Is there a defensible way to put these side by side, or is the honest answer that there is not and we should stop?

SURMOUNT-OSA is notable because it used an objective physiological endpoint, the apnoea-hypopnoea index, rather than a symptom scale. Two parallel trials, with and without positive airway pressure, addressed the confounder directly. The reduction was substantial in both.

Two things before anyone answers the substance.

First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.

post #3 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Titration schedules for tirzepatide have more dose steps than semaglutide partly because the compound is more potent and partly because the clinical programme used a finer gradation. That does not mean you cannot escalate on a coarser schedule if that suits you — the published schedule is not a lower bound.