number needed to treat

Journal club: indirect comparison between two programmes, defended and attacked Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Comparing SUSTAIN 6 ( N Engl J Med , 2016)…

Journal club: LEADER as the historical anchor Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Comparing STEP 1 ( N Engl J Med , 2021) with SURMOUNT-4 ( JAMA , 2024) and…

Posting this under the heading it deserves: Correlation in a self-tracked dataset: what it can support Everything below is what sits behind that. I have seen SURMOUNT-4 ( JAMA , 2024) cited in support of a…

Journal club: STEP 1 and the treatment-policy estimand Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Comparing SUSTAIN 6 ( N Engl J Med , 2016) with STEP 8 ( JAMA , 2022)…

Posting this under the heading it deserves: Journal club: STEP 8 and the fairness of the comparator dose — a second dataset Everything below is what sits behind that. Session topic: SURPASS-2 ( N Engl J Med ,…

Posting this under the heading it deserves: Journal club: semaglutide in MASH, and surrogate endpoints Everything below is what sits behind that. Comparing SCALE ( N Engl J Med , 2015) with SURMOUNT-2 (…

Asking directly, because I could not find a straight answer: Journal club: STEP 1 and the treatment-policy estimand — does this still hold? Comparing STEP 2 ( Lancet , 2021) with SURPASS-2 ( N Engl J Med ,…

On the subject in the title: Second pass at: Absence of evidence and evidence of absence Working notes rather than a conclusion. Session topic: SELECT ( N Engl J Med , 2023). Please read it before posting;…

On the subject in the title: Journal club: what we got wrong in an earlier session Working notes rather than a conclusion. Session topic: SURMOUNT-1 ( N Engl J Med , 2022). Please read it before posting; the…

Journal club: what we got wrong in an earlier session — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. I have seen STEP 4 ( JAMA , 2021) cited in support of a claim I do not think it…

Revisiting: Journal club: SURMOUNT-OSA and a hard endpoint in a soft field — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. Comparing LEADER ( N Engl J Med , 2016) with SUSTAIN 6 ( N Engl…

Sample size intuition for a personal experiment — does this still hold? I have a specific reason for asking rather than idle curiosity, and the context is below. Comparing STEP 1 ( N Engl J Med , 2021) with…

On the subject in the title: Revisiting: Journal club: SURMOUNT-1, read without the press release Working notes rather than a conclusion. Session topic: PIONEER 6 ( N Engl J Med , 2019). Please read it before…

Posting this under the heading it deserves: Journal club: STEP 3 and the intensive behavioural therapy floor Everything below is what sits behind that. Comparing SCALE ( N Engl J Med , 2015) with STEP 4 (…

On the subject in the title: Journal club: SELECT, absolute risk, and how it was reported — a second dataset Working notes rather than a conclusion. Comparing SURMOUNT-1 ( N Engl J Med , 2022) with SELECT ( N…

What a confidence interval means, from scratch — that is the question, and I have not found it answered plainly anywhere I have looked. I have seen STEP 8 ( JAMA , 2022) cited in support of a claim I do not…

On the subject in the title: Measurement error in home scales, with a worked standard deviation — the long version Working notes rather than a conclusion. Session topic: SURMOUNT-1 ( N Engl J Med , 2022).…

Journal club: is percentage weight change the right endpoint? I have a specific reason for asking rather than idle curiosity, and the context is below. Comparing SURPASS-4 ( Lancet , 2021) with SURMOUNT-OSA (…

Journal club: SURMOUNT-4 and continuation versus withdrawal — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. I have seen FLOW ( N Engl J Med , 2024) cited in support of a claim I do not…

Measurement error in home scales, with a worked standard deviation Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Comparing SURPASS-4 ( Lancet , 2021) with STEP 1 ( N Engl…

Absence of evidence and evidence of absence Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Session topic: SURMOUNT-OSA ( N Engl J Med , 2024). Please read it before…

Posting this under the heading it deserves: Journal club: PIONEER 6 as a safety trial Everything below is what sits behind that. Session topic: SURMOUNT-4 ( JAMA , 2024). Please read it before posting; the…

Journal club: PIONEER 6 as a safety trial Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. I have seen SUSTAIN 6 ( N Engl J Med , 2016) cited in support of a claim I do not…

Journal club: semaglutide in MASH, and surrogate endpoints — does this still hold? I have a specific reason for asking rather than idle curiosity, and the context is below. Comparing STEP 1 ( N Engl J Med ,…

Journal club: the retatrutide phase 2 obesity paper — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. I have seen FLOW ( N Engl J Med , 2024) cited in support of a claim I do not think it…

Measurement error in home scales, with a worked standard deviation — a second dataset — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. Comparing FLOW ( N Engl J Med , 2024) with SURPASS-2…

Effect sizes, intervals, multiplicity, and the difference between absent and undetected. This post is a community wiki: any member at trust level 3 or above can edit it, and every edit is recorded with its…

Journal club: how we handle discontinuation in obesity trials — what changed since — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. Session topic: STEP 4 ( JAMA , 2021). Please read it…

The question in the title: What a confidence interval means, from scratch — the long version I will give what I have already checked below so nobody repeats it. I have seen SURMOUNT-2 ( Lancet , 2023) cited…

Second pass at: Journal club: STEP 4 and what a withdrawal design can prove Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Session topic: SURMOUNT-OSA ( N Engl J Med ,…