What TRIUMPH is designed to answer, and why we should not pre-empt it — does this still hold?

Asking directly, because I could not find a straight answer: What TRIUMPH is designed to answer, and why we should not pre-empt it — does this still hold?

Session topic: STEP 2 (Lancet, 2021). Please read it before posting; the discussion is much better when everyone has.

The question I would like us to start with is what the trial set out to estimate, rather than what it found. Once that is on the table we can talk about whether the design could have answered it, and only then about the numbers.

Specific things I would like covered: the population and how far it generalises, how discontinuation was handled, whether the comparator was a fair one, and what the absolute rather than relative effect looks like.

I will summarise at the end and the summary will feed the relevant digest page.

How to read phase 2 without treating it as phase 3: phase 2 establishes that a dose range produces an effect and is tolerable enough to justify large trials. It does not establish safety, durability, or whether real humans differ from the selected population.

Hepatic effects: glucagon receptor agonism promotes hepatic fat oxidation, which is mechanistically plausible for benefit in metabolic liver disease. Whether that translates to improved clinical outcomes is being tested in phase 2 work.

On post #15 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

How to read phase 2 without treating it as phase 3: phase 2 establishes that a dose range produces an effect and is tolerable enough to justify large trials. It does not establish safety, durability, or whether real humans differ from the selected population.

The phase 2 obesity paper reported dose-dependent weight reduction of a magnitude that attracted attention. It also reported dose-dependent heart-rate increases. The heart-rate signal is the reason phase 3 exists rather than something assumed negligible based on phase 2.

Mass and identity: a report on retatrutide should state the mass detected by LC-MS, not assume a theoretical mass. The theoretical mass is not published in peer-reviewed literature for retatrutide at present.