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Evidence · Meta-analyses

Publication bias detection and its low power — does this still hold?

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Solved by d.bramley in post #4
post #3 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different. When a meta-analysis is unhelpful: if the included studies are heterogeneous in population, intervention, or outcome, pooling them produces a number that represents nothing in particular. Reading the individual studies is more useful than…

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RC
r.chukwuTL2 Moderator28 Nov 2025#1

The question in the title: Publication bias detection and its low power — does this still hold? I will give what I have already checked below so nobody repeats it.

I have seen LEADER (N Engl J Med, 2016) cited in support of a claim I do not think it supports, twice this month, so I would like to work through what it actually shows.

My reading is that the trial is sound for its own question and is being stretched to answer a different one. I might be wrong about that, which is why this is a topic rather than a correction.

What I would like from this discussion: someone who disagrees with me to say why, with the section of the paper they are relying on.

10 likes 8mo
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GEldridgeTL3Regular10 Dec 2025#2

Number needed to treat from a meta-analysis: can be computed from the pooled estimate if the baseline risk is specified. More interpretable than pooled relative effects.

0 likes 8mo
AK
a.krastevTL2 Moderator19 Dec 2025#3
r.chukwu, post #1: The question in the title: Publication bias detection and its low power — does this still hold? I will give what I have already checked below so nobody repeats it. I have seen LEADER ( N Engl J Med , 2016) cited in support of a claim I do not think it supports, twice this month, so I would like to work through what it actually shows. My… Go to post

Subgroup analysis: sometimes a meta-analysis reports separate pooled estimates for different subgroups (e.g., by baseline body mass index or by trial duration). Be cautious — many subgroup analyses are exploratory and less reliable than the main analysis.

0 likes in reply to #1 7mo
DB
d.bramleyTL3Regular Solution27 Dec 2025#4
a.krastev, post #3: Subgroup analysis: sometimes a meta-analysis reports separate pooled estimates for different subgroups (e.g., by baseline body mass index or by trial duration). Be cautious — many subgroup analyses are exploratory and less reliable than the main analysis. Go to post

post #3 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

When a meta-analysis is unhelpful: if the included studies are heterogeneous in population, intervention, or outcome, pooling them produces a number that represents nothing in particular. Reading the individual studies is more useful than reading the pooled estimate.

21 likes in reply to #3 7mo
SP
s.perrinTL2 Moderator3 Jan 2026#5

I read post #3 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Pooled estimates and heterogeneity: when trials differ in population, duration, or comparator, a pooled estimate answers a question that no individual trial asked. High heterogeneity means effects genuinely differ across studies. The pooled number is an average of things that should not have been averaged.

2 likes 7mo
GC
glossary_checkTL2Member10 Jan 2026#6

Publication bias: what did not get published? Small studies with negative results are less likely to be published than large studies with positive results. A forest plot with only large studies on the positive end is a red flag for unpublished small negative studies.

0 likes 7mo
AK
an.kirchnerTL2 Moderator16 Jan 2026 · edited#7

Why forest plots are more informative than pooled numbers: they show the variation across studies, which tells you whether the effect is consistent or heterogeneous. A narrow confidence interval around a meaningless centre is less useful than a wider interval that shows real differences.

29 likes 6mo
GD
glossary_deskTL3Regular22 Jan 2026#8
an.kirchner, post #7: Why forest plots are more informative than pooled numbers: they show the variation across studies, which tells you whether the effect is consistent or heterogeneous. A narrow confidence interval around a meaningless centre is less useful than a wider interval that shows real differences. Go to post

For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use.

14 likes in reply to #7 6mo
CH
c.haddadTL2 Moderator28 Jan 2026#9

Funnel plots: a plot of study effect size versus sample size that helps detect publication bias. If small studies are missing on the negative side, the funnel is asymmetrical.

14 likes 6mo
PN
plateau_notesTL2Regular3 Feb 2026#10
GEldridge, post #2: Number needed to treat from a meta-analysis: can be computed from the pooled estimate if the baseline risk is specified. More interpretable than pooled relative effects. Go to post

Picking up post #7: that is the part I would want checked first.

Thank you for the correction. I have edited my earlier post with a note rather than silently, so the thread still makes sense to read. The error was mine and it was the kind that comes from remembering a figure instead of looking it up.

5 likes in reply to #2 6mo
AS
a.sorensenTL2 Moderator9 Feb 2026 · edited#11
a.krastev, post #3: Subgroup analysis: sometimes a meta-analysis reports separate pooled estimates for different subgroups (e.g., by baseline body mass index or by trial duration). Be cautious — many subgroup analyses are exploratory and less reliable than the main analysis. Go to post

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

0 likes in reply to #3 6mo
SD
s.duarteTL2 Moderator15 Feb 2026#12
glossary_check, post #6: Publication bias: what did not get published? Small studies with negative results are less likely to be published than large studies with positive results. A forest plot with only large studies on the positive end is a red flag for unpublished small negative studies. Go to post

Fixed-effects versus random-effects models: fixed-effects assumes all studies are estimating the same thing and variation is sampling error. Random-effects assumes studies are estimating effects from different distributions and allows between-study variance. Choice matters if heterogeneity is high.

0 likes in reply to #6 5mo
NN
n.nakamuraTL2 Moderator20 Feb 2026#13

post #12 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Inclusion and exclusion criteria: a meta-analysis is only as good as its inclusion criteria. If the criteria are too broad, apples and oranges get pooled. If they are too narrow, the meta-analysis answers a overly specific question.

4 likes 5mo
AS
a.salcedoTL325 Feb 2026#14
SB
s.beaulieuTL2 Moderator3 Mar 2026#15

Publication bias: what did not get published? Small studies with negative results are less likely to be published than large studies with positive results. A forest plot with only large studies on the positive end is a red flag for unpublished small negative studies.

25 likes 5mo
J
JFitzgibbonTL2Member8 Mar 2026#16
c.haddad, post #9: Funnel plots: a plot of study effect size versus sample size that helps detect publication bias. If small studies are missing on the negative side, the funnel is asymmetrical. Go to post

I read post #14 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Pooled estimates and heterogeneity: when trials differ in population, duration, or comparator, a pooled estimate answers a question that no individual trial asked. High heterogeneity means effects genuinely differ across studies. The pooled number is an average of things that should not have been averaged.

0 likes in reply to #9 5mo
TV
to.vargaTL2 Moderator13 Mar 2026#17

post #16 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

When a meta-analysis is unhelpful: if the included studies are heterogeneous in population, intervention, or outcome, pooling them produces a number that represents nothing in particular. Reading the individual studies is more useful than reading the pooled estimate.

1 like 5mo
GH
g.haalandTL3Regular18 Mar 2026#18

Subgroup analysis: sometimes a meta-analysis reports separate pooled estimates for different subgroups (e.g., by baseline body mass index or by trial duration). Be cautious — many subgroup analyses are exploratory and less reliable than the main analysis.

7 likes 4mo
SO
s.okonkwoTL2 Moderator23 Mar 2026#19

Picking up post #16: that is the part I would want checked first.

For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use.

18 likes 4mo
CD
cohort_driftTL3Regular28 Mar 2026 · edited#20
a.salcedo, post #14: On post #10 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification. Practical note that does not fit anywhere else. Whatever you conclude from this topic, write down what you did and when. The single most useful thing in your own records is not any individual result; it is that they are dated and consecutive. Go to post

Why forest plots are more informative than pooled numbers: they show the variation across studies, which tells you whether the effect is consistent or heterogeneous. A narrow confidence interval around a meaningless centre is less useful than a wider interval that shows real differences.

0 likes in reply to #14 4mo
VM
v.malinowskiTL22 Apr 2026#21
VS
vial_slopeTL3Regular7 Apr 2026#22

Picking up post #19: that is the part I would want checked first.

Study quality and weighting: some meta-analyses weight all studies equally; others weight by study size or study quality. The choice affects the result and should be stated and justified.

3 likes 4mo
SD
s.demirTL2 Moderator12 Apr 2026#23

Having read the exchange above, I think I was wrong earlier in this topic and I want to say so plainly rather than quietly editing.

The correction was fair and I had been repeating something I had not checked carefully enough.

0 likes 4mo
LP
l.parkinsonTL2Member16 Apr 2026#24

Number needed to treat from a meta-analysis: can be computed from the pooled estimate if the baseline risk is specified. More interpretable than pooled relative effects.

23 likes 3mo
PO
p.onwukaTL2 Moderator21 Apr 2026 · edited#25
s.duarte, post #12: Fixed-effects versus random-effects models: fixed-effects assumes all studies are estimating the same thing and variation is sampling error. Random-effects assumes studies are estimating effects from different distributions and allows between-study variance. Choice matters if heterogeneity is high. Go to post

I read post #23 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Fixed-effects versus random-effects models: fixed-effects assumes all studies are estimating the same thing and variation is sampling error. Random-effects assumes studies are estimating effects from different distributions and allows between-study variance. Choice matters if heterogeneity is high.

15 likes in reply to #12 3mo
HN
h.nicolaidesTL3Regular26 Apr 2026#26

This follows post #23 rather than contradicting it.

Inclusion and exclusion criteria: a meta-analysis is only as good as its inclusion criteria. If the criteria are too broad, apples and oranges get pooled. If they are too narrow, the meta-analysis answers a overly specific question.

6 likes 3mo
KK
k.karlsenTL2 Moderator30 Apr 2026#27

Sensitivity analysis: the authors re-run the meta-analysis excluding studies one at a time, or by quality, to see whether the pooled estimate changes. Robust results stay similar even when individual studies are excluded.

0 likes 3mo
N
NLoughranTL3Regular5 May 2026#28

Thank you for the correction. I have edited my earlier post with a note rather than silently, so the thread still makes sense to read. The error was mine and it was the kind that comes from remembering a figure instead of looking it up.

31 likes 3mo
ZS
z.szaboTL2 Moderator9 May 2026#29
s.perrin, post #5: I read post #3 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite. Pooled estimates and heterogeneity: when trials differ in population, duration, or comparator, a pooled estimate answers a question that no individual trial asked. High heterogeneity means effects genuinely differ across studies. The pooled number is an average of… Go to post

Coming back to post #27, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Having read the exchange above, I think I was wrong earlier in this topic and I want to say so plainly rather than quietly editing.

The correction was fair and I had been repeating something I had not checked carefully enough.

22 likes in reply to #5 3mo

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