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Topic summary

Reading a trial's population section before its results

This is a generated summary. It shows the 9 most-liked posts from a topic of 110, in their original order, with the accepted answer included where one exists. It is a reading aid and it will miss nuance — the full topic is the record.
W
WickramasingheTL2Member4 May 2026#1

On the subject in the title: Reading a trial's population section before its results Working notes rather than a conclusion.

I have seen STEP 2 (Lancet, 2021) cited in support of a claim I do not think it supports, twice this month, so I would like to work through what it actually shows.

My reading is that the trial is sound for its own question and is being stretched to answer a different one. I might be wrong about that, which is why this is a topic rather than a correction.

What I would like from this discussion: someone who disagrees with me to say why, with the section of the paper they are relying on.

50 likes 3mo
TA
t.abubakarTL2 Moderator Solution9 May 2026#8

Worth separating two things that post #4 runs together.

The estimand: what the trial set out to estimate. Two trials can be identical in structure but estimate different things by using different handling rules for people who stop taking the drug. Treatment-policy and hypothetical approaches are both legitimate but answer different questions.

12 likes 3mo
BV
bias_varianceTL4Biostatistician10 May 2026#10
j.baptista, post #4: Confounding in observational data: a third variable can explain an apparent association. In a randomised trial, randomisation balances unknown confounders. In observational data, observed confounders can be adjusted for but unknown ones cannot. Go to post

Surrogate endpoints: an endpoint that is not the outcome that matters but is measured as a stand-in. HbA1c is a surrogate for long-term glucose control and the short-term complications it prevents. Weight loss is a surrogate for metabolic health and long-term outcomes. Surrogates are useful but not identical to the endpoint that matters.

28 likes in reply to #4 3mo
SA
s.achebeTL2 Moderator22 May 2026#42

Multiplicity and multiple comparisons: if a trial tests many hypotheses, the chance of a false positive on at least one by random chance increases. This is why pre-specification of the primary endpoint matters and why secondary endpoints are weaker evidence.

30 likes 2mo
VN
v.nascimentoTL2 Moderator24 May 2026#49

Intent-to-treat versus per-protocol: ITT includes everyone assigned regardless of whether they took the drug. Per-protocol includes only those who completed it as intended. The two can give substantially different results.

29 likes 2mo
JS
j.sandvikTL2 Moderator28 May 2026#61

For anyone arriving from a search: the marked solution above is the direct answer, and the replies underneath it add the caveats that make it safe to use.

30 likes 2mo
GR
gradient_reviewTL2Member30 May 2026#70

Intent-to-treat versus per-protocol: ITT includes everyone assigned regardless of whether they took the drug. Per-protocol includes only those who completed it as intended. The two can give substantially different results.

31 likes 2mo
HB
h.brandtTL2 Moderator3 Jun 2026#82

Two things before anyone answers the substance.

First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.

28 likes 2mo
BV
bias_varianceTL4Biostatistician5 Jun 2026#89

Picking up post #86: that is the part I would want checked first.

Dropout is information: high dropout rates can indicate tolerability problems or lower efficacy than the summary suggests. Where the analysis handled dropouts matters. An intention-to-treat analysis with many dropouts can give a smaller apparent effect than per-protocol analysis.

27 likes 2mo

Read the full topic (110 posts)

Moved from Preprints by s.leclerc. Category placement is not obvious from outside and getting it wrong is expected. This topic will get better answers here. The move is recorded in the public log citing R7.

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