Revisiting: Food effects on oral incretin absorption: what is documented

Revisiting: Food effects on oral incretin absorption: what is documented — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable.

Session topic: SURMOUNT-2 (Lancet, 2023). Please read it before posting; the discussion is much better when everyone has.

The question I would like us to start with is what the trial set out to estimate, rather than what it found. Once that is on the table we can talk about whether the design could have answered it, and only then about the numbers.

Specific things I would like covered: the population and how far it generalises, how discontinuation was handled, whether the comparator was a fair one, and what the absolute rather than relative effect looks like.

I will summarise at the end and the summary will feed the relevant digest page.

This follows the opening post rather than contradicting it.

Trial adherence in an oral trial with strict administration requirements is genuinely worse than trial-published data often suggests. That is why the exposure variability in oral formulations is mentioned repeatedly in the discussions here.

Oral bioavailability is variable between people. Some people absorb well; others absorb poorly. That inter-individual variation is larger than with injectables and is one reason the trial data for oral formulations receives different treatment.

PIONEER 6 was a cardiovascular safety trial for oral semaglutide, not an efficacy trial. Non-inferiority for safety was demonstrated. The point estimates favoured the drug but the trial was not designed to establish benefit.

Practical note that does not fit anywhere else. Whatever you conclude from this topic, write down what you did and when. The single most useful thing in your own records is not any individual result; it is that they are dated and consecutive.