Two things before anyone answers the substance.
First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.
Two things before anyone answers the substance.
First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.
This follows post #5 rather than contradicting it.
Number needed to treat: how many people need to be treated to prevent one bad outcome or achieve one good outcome. More intuitive than relative risk reduction.
Two things before anyone answers the substance.
First, the context in the first post is clear and specific. Second, the question is framed so that an answer can actually address it. Both are the norm here and both matter more than they sound.
Multiplicity and multiple comparisons: if you test many hypotheses, the chance of finding a false positive by random chance increases. That is why pre-specifying the primary hypothesis matters.
Absence of evidence and evidence of absence: if a study is small and finds no effect, that is absence of evidence, not evidence of absence. A larger study might find an effect that a small study missed.
Read the full topic (39 posts)
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[2026 update] Correlation in a self-tracked dataset: what it can support
Posting this under the heading it deserves: Correlation in a self-tracked dataset: what it can support Everything below is what sits behind that. I have seen SURMOUNT-4 ( JAMA , 2024) cited in support of a…
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2 | 31k | 6h | |
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Measurement error in home scales, with a worked standard deviation
Measurement error in home scales, with a worked standard deviation Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did. Comparing SURPASS-4 ( Lancet , 2021) with STEP 1 ( N Engl…
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+26 | 31 | 4.3k | 4mo |
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Sample size intuition for a personal experiment
On the subject in the title: Sample size intuition for a personal experiment Working notes rather than a conclusion. Session topic: STEP 2 ( Lancet , 2021). Please read it before posting; the discussion is…
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4 | 62k | 18mo | |
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Second pass at: Multiplicity when you track fifteen variables
Posting this under the heading it deserves: Second pass at: Multiplicity when you track fifteen variables Everything below is what sits behind that. I have seen SCALE ( N Engl J Med , 2015) cited in support…
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2 | 12k | 18mo | |
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Regression to the mean in progress reports
On the subject in the title: Regression to the mean in progress reports Working notes rather than a conclusion. Session topic: PIONEER 6 ( N Engl J Med , 2019). Please read it before posting; the discussion…
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+30 | 34 | 49k | 12mo |
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Journal club: the retatrutide phase 2 obesity paper
Journal club: the retatrutide phase 2 obesity paper — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. I have seen FLOW ( N Engl J Med , 2024) cited in support of a claim I do not think it…
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+7 | 11 | 33k | 7mo |
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Reverse causation in a cohort study of weight and outcome
On the subject in the title: Reverse causation in a cohort study of weight and outcome Working notes rather than a conclusion. Comparing SELECT ( N Engl J Med , 2023) with FLOW ( N Engl J Med , 2024) and…
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+10 | 14 | 11k | 7mo |
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Journal club: the CagriSema phase 2 combination paper — a second dataset
Journal club: the CagriSema phase 2 combination paper — a second dataset — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. I have seen FLOW ( N Engl J Med , 2024) cited in support of a…
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+74 | 79 | 2.3k | 13mo |
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Pooling trials with different estimands
On the subject in the title: Pooling trials with different estimands Working notes rather than a conclusion. Comparing SELECT ( N Engl J Med , 2023) with SURMOUNT-1 ( N Engl J Med , 2022) and finding the…
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+120 | 132 | 2.3k | 1d |
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Follow-up: Individual participant data versus aggregate data
Individual participant data versus aggregate data — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable. Comparing LEADER ( N Engl J Med , 2016) with SURPASS-4 ( Lancet , 2021) and finding the…
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+101 | 111 | 23k | 18mo |