Tirzepatide in type 2 diabetes: the SURPASS programme, summarised honestly

Tirzepatide in type 2 diabetes: the SURPASS programme, summarised honestly — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable.

Comparing SURMOUNT-2 (Lancet, 2023) with STEP 2 (Lancet, 2021) and finding the comparison harder than it looks.

Different populations, different durations, different endpoints defined slightly differently, and in one case a different estimand. People compare the headline percentages anyway, including me until recently.

Is there a defensible way to put these side by side, or is the honest answer that there is not and we should stop?

Picking up post #41: that is the part I would want checked first.

I disagree with the reply above, and I think the disagreement is substantive rather than terminological.

The distinction being drawn does not survive when you look at the published data for this specific question. I would be glad to be shown wrong on this, because the version I am arguing against is more convenient.

Half-life difference: tirzepatide is about 5 days versus semaglutide's week-long. Practically, that means steady state is reached slightly faster and the post-dose swing is slightly larger. Most people do not report noticing the difference in practical terms.

Picking up post #56: that is the part I would want checked first.

I disagree with the reply above, and I think the disagreement is substantive rather than terminological.

The distinction being drawn does not survive when you look at the published data for this specific question. I would be glad to be shown wrong on this, because the version I am arguing against is more convenient.

I read post #63 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

SURMOUNT-4 used a randomised withdrawal design: everyone titrated, then those on maintenance were randomised to continue or placebo. Continuation maintained effect; withdrawal was followed by regain. The finding is robust but it says nothing about a lower effective maintenance dose, because that was not studied.

On post #111 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

SURMOUNT-OSA is notable because it used an objective physiological endpoint, the apnoea-hypopnoea index, rather than a symptom scale. Two parallel trials, with and without positive airway pressure, addressed the confounder directly. The reduction was substantial in both.

I read post #155 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Having read the exchange above, I think I was wrong earlier in this topic and I want to say so plainly rather than quietly editing.

The correction was fair and I had been repeating something I had not checked carefully enough.

post #160 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

The 2.5 mg starting dose is not a therapeutic dose in the sense that weight loss is minimal at that dose. It is a tolerance-testing dose. Confusing the purpose of a starting dose with the purpose of a maintenance dose leads to false conclusions about efficacy.